"Do you lose more than you win at exchange betting?" - "Want to turn it around?"
Breakthrough: Unique exchange betting software tool WINS!
             

Exchange Betting Calculator    www.ExchangeBettingCalculator.com

The exchange betting software tool that wins

Gain the "edge" you need to win against other bettors!
No, it's not the gambler's Holy Grail! It is attainable... by mathematics!
Gives you a strategic advantage both before and during the events!
The EBC tells you exactly the bets to make and the bets to avoid! FAST!

This web site is for persons of at least 18 years of age.
This software is for punters willing to bet on events selected according to its advice based on mathematical computation of a high probability of making money. These will probably be fewer than you expect. If you feel the need to bet on many events just for the sake of betting or for fun, against its advice, this software is likely to reduce your losses, but you'll probably still lose.

Users of this software should return to this page often, to check the latest test results and tips.

"He who does not understand the supreme certainty of mathematics is wallowing in confusion."

Leonardo da Vinci



"How can an exchange betting system work successfully without any human judgment?"

The principle and the method The benefits for the bettor

There must be an element of human judgment somewhere in a successful betting system. If it were purely mechanical, there would be no losers. Without losers there would be no winners. Then there would be no betting at all. This is unassailable logic.

The Exchange Betting Calculator software harnesses the "form" opinions of all the punters and traders who have already placed their bets on an event, and converts them mathematically into a "probability factor" which tells you precisely what and how to bet on an event, or not to bet on it at all.

  • Rather than rely on your own judgment or that of a single tipster, you place your bet (or not), based on a consensus of opinion of the dozens (or hundreds) of people whose judgment matters most: those against whom you are betting.
  • You don't need to study "form" yourself (but you'll win more if you do), or pay a tipster for advice. The Exchange Betting Calculator tells you exactly what to do (or what not to do) in a few seconds.
    The results speak for themselves(see chart 1 & chart 2).
Exchange Betting Calculator

Example of a bet NOT to place!

  • Exchange betting software for punters who want to win with minimum time, effort, thought and complexity.
  • Accurate strategy information to enable you to place bets that have the best possible chance of winning.
  • Super-fast interface in case you're in a hurry to place a bet. Sliders adjust all figures at once.
  • Instant indication of bets to place and bets to avoid, per match probability.
  • Tells you exactly the odds to request and stake to place to maximize your winnings and minimize risk.
  • Preset betting values from test analysis, with a manual override for fine control according to how "favourite" the favourite is.
  • Manual override of requested odds for setting your own preferred win probability level.
  • Open any number of calculator forms. Plan "what-if" in-play bets in advance for instant placement.
  • Save results to a built-in database (EBC edition).
  • Lifetime software updates.
  • Tips & step-by-step tactics for various levels of betting aggressiveness.

(Area for testimonials when the software is released)

(Name)

 

 

Until the Exchange Betting Calculator is released, you
can use the non-database version of this software:
Matched Bet Calculator, which performs identically.

Alternatively, let our mathematician do the work for you by using the Abacus Tennis Betting Tips Service.

There will be an announcement about availability. You can check back here later, or be informed when the software is about to be released.
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Click the cat before the button...
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RACING - LIVE RESULTS

Exchange Betting Guide

These exchange betting tips will help you with your betting strategy...


"What is exchange betting?"

Exchange betting is a relatively new phenomenon. It is made possible only by advanced web site technology. Exchange betting web sites offer bettors a greater chance of winning than do traditional bookmakers. The reasons are explained in a separate section below.

In brief, exchange betting web sites allow punters to bet against each other, acting as either bettors or bookmakers by making a 'Back' bet or a 'Lay' bet respectively. The prevailing 'Lay' bet odds are always more than the prevailing 'Back' bet odds (obviously). The difference, however, can vary greatly, depending on how ambitious (or greedy) the bettors are.

If you want better odds than are available at any given moment, you can request your desired odds and state the amount of money you want to bet at those odds. If, at any time thereafter, another punter accepts your offer, your bet is 'matched'. You can cancel your request at any time, but as soon as it is matched by another punter you can no longer change your mind. You can do this as many times as you like, both BEFORE and DURING the event, right up until the instant when the final result is known. (The importance of the timing and the amount of a pre-event bet request is discussed later.)

To meet the expense of the technology, the web site provider takes a commission on the net winnings of all punters on each event. This means that, if you make a 'Back' bet on an event at certain odds and a 'Lay' bet on the same event at different odds that enable you to make a net profit from the result, you'll pay a commission on only the net profit, not on the amount you actually won. This is a very fair arrangement, as your loss mitigates your winnings.

As a simple example, if you make a 'Back' bet of 10 on player A at odds of 4 (3/1) and offer a 'Lay' bet of 20 on the same player at odds of 2 (1/1) which is matched later in the event as the players' fortunes change, you'll win 10 (less commission) if either player A or player B wins. If player A shows no sign of threat to player B at all, your 'Lay' bet will not be matched, and you'll lose 10 when player B wins. If you do not offer a "balancing" 'Lay' bet, you'll lose 10 if player B wins, and win 30 (less commission on 20) if player A wins.


"What events are most suitable for exchange betting?"

The greatest chance of winning occurs in events where the scoring is fairly continual and steady, and where there can be small "swings" towards the likely result. Events such as tennis, golf, snooker, martial arts, baseball, cricket, American football, darts, rugby, pelota, volleyball, handball, basketball, etc. are suitable; hockey, boxing less so; soccer is unsuitable, because scoring is so rare, and a single goal creates a huge swing in favour of the scoring team.

Logically the fewer the possible outcomes are, the greater are your chances of winning on the event. This is another reason why soccer is harder to win on than tennis, for example; a soccer match can end in a draw, whereas in tennis there can be only a winner and a loser. Horse-racing is hardest of all because any one of a number of runners can win. Despite this irrefutable logic, horse-racing and soccer are the most popular sports events for exchange betting.

A close third in popularity, however, is tennis. Because there must be plenty of money in the "pot" also, tennis therefore ticks all the boxes for the best chances of winning at exchange betting:

Tennis There are only two opponents, and any change in the odds on one has a directly corresponding effect on the other's;
Tennis There can be small swings to one side or the other during the event;
Tennis There can be only one winner and one loser, no draw or tie;
Tennis There's plenty of money being bet by punters.

Assuming that your aim is to make money from exchange betting and not to bet just for fun, this site uses tennis in most of the examples.


"How can I win at exchange betting?"
--- How Abacus Exchange Betting 'system' makes money...

There are three key factors to achieving the win-win situation mentioned in the first section of this exchange betting guide:

Key Factor #1

To get your bet on the non-favourite matched at the highest odds before the event starts.

When we pointed out how poor the odds were for many events before they started, the world's leading exchange betting web site operator, Betfair (links below), replied: "In several markets on Betfair you will see that, when the market is first loaded onto the site the odds are not a true reflection of the selections' respective chances of winning. This is because there is not sufficient liquidity at this stage and the market is therefore not properly formed. You will begin to see the proper prices only as the event gets closer to the start time, when more people begin to bet on the market and offer realistic prices." Always check the liquidity first. If it's low, your bets will not be matched, regardless of the swings during the event, and there's no point in betting at all.

The odds for the non-favourite in some events increase dramatically as the event approaches; some decrease equally dramatically; some fluctuate mildly; others remain fairly steady. It's impossible to predict this behaviour. It often happens, though, that the odds increase an hour or so before the event, as more punters bet on the favourite, and then decrease during the few minutes before the start, as punters bet on the relatively high odds of the non-favourite. The opposite also happens. The trick is to request a bet in advance, to be at the front of the queue (explained later), for the non-favourite. But when and what should that bet be?

The timing and the amount of the bet request for the non-favourite are important. You do NOT want your bet to be matched too early and then see a further increase in the odds. Ideally, you want your bet to be matched when the odds hit their peak and then drop back again. In this ideal scenario the gap that you'll need to close between your bet on the non-favourite and your "balancing" bet on the favourite (see next item) will be minimized and your chances of achieving a win-win position maximized.

Examples of the Abacus Exchange Betting 'system' in action and how it makes money:

(These were three bets placed by Abacus, among ten consecutive similar winners. They were not "cherry-picked". We just decided to document some examples, to show how you can make money if you follow the advice of the Exchange Betting Calculator.)

Example 1: Tennis match between Timea Bacsinszky of Switzerland and Yanina Wickmayer of Belgium on 14th October 2009 in Linz, Austria. Nine hours before the scheduled start time of 17.15 the odds for Bacsinszky were 3.6 and those for Wickmayer were 1.38. We entered these two figures into the Exchange Betting Calculator, and it advised us to request a bet on Bacsinszky at odds of 4.1.

About one hour before the scheduled start time our bet on the non-favourite was matched. We replaced her odds of "3.6" with "4.1" and the favourite's odds of "1.38" with her current odds of "1.32" in the Exchange Betting Calculator, and it told us to request odds of 1.56 for the favourite and the exact amount to bet, according to an automatically calculated 61%:39% bias towards the favourite.

The match started two hours behind schedule, during which time the odds for the non-favourite came right back to 3.6. On this occasion they didn't stay there, which would have made our "balancing" bet on the favourite easier to match, but moved out again to 4.1 as the match started. (The odds never went any higher than 4.1. So, the Exchange Betting Calculator advised with perfect accuracy, and we got the odds at their peak.)

According to the Exchange Betting Calculator, the 'Bet Strength' was 81.08. This is a measure of the probability that the gap between the favourite's current odds (1.32) and our requested "balancing" odds (1.56) will be closed. (100.00 means no gap at all, i.e., an instant match.)

Our "balancing" bet on the favourite was matched when the non-favourite was only a single point ahead in the ninth game (15-0). That was all we needed to achieve a win-win situation. Now we'd win 45% of our stake if the favourite won, and 51.5% of our stake if the non-favourite won.

Example 2: Tennis match between Alize Cornet of France and Agnieszka Radwanska of Poland on 15th October 2009 in Linz, Austria. Six hours before the scheduled start time of 15.15 the odds for Cornet were 4.6 and those for Radwanska were 1.26. We entered these two figures into the Exchange Betting Calculator, and it advised us to request a bet on Cornet at odds of 4.9.

Three and a half hours before the scheduled start time our bet on the non-favourite was matched. We replaced her odds of "4.6" with "4.9" in the Exchange Betting Calculator, and it told us to request odds of 1.41 for the favourite and the exact amount to bet, according to an automatically calculated 4%:96% bias towards the favourite.

The match started half an hour behind schedule. Since the time our bet of 4.9 was matched the odds for the non-favourite came right back to 4.1. As the match started they had moved out to 4.4. (The odds never went any higher than 4.9. So, the Exchange Betting Calculator advised with perfect accuracy, and we got the odds at their peak.)

At the start the favourite's odds were 1.28, leaving a gap of only 0.13 to our requested odds of 1.41. That's worth about 1 point in tennis. According to the Exchange Betting Calculator, the 'Bet Strength' was 87.73.

Our "balancing" bet on the favourite was matched when the non-favourite moved only a single point ahead in the fourth game (40-30). That was enough to move the favourite's odds out to 1.42, thereby triggering a win-win situation. (Another perfect calculation (almost) by the Exchange Betting Calculator!) Now we'd win 57.5% of our stake if the favourite won, and 6% of our stake if the non-favourite won. From that moment the non-favourite remained behind until the end of the match.

Example 3: Tennis match between Aleksandra Wozniak of Canada and Caroline Wozniacki of Denmark on 16th October 2009 in Osaka, Japan. Eleven hours before the scheduled start time of 13.45 the odds for Wozniak were 4.6 and those for Wozniacki were 1.27. We entered these two figures into the Exchange Betting Calculator, and it advised us to request a bet on Wozniak at odds of 4.9.

Two and a quarter hours later 28.5% of our bet on the non-favourite was matched. After a further 45 minutes the remaining 71.5% of our bet on the non-favourite was matched. (Although we were asleep at the time, this indicates that the odds reached the maximum peak predicted by the Exchange Betting Calculator.) Just before the match started we replaced Wozniak's odds of "4.6" with "4.9" in the Exchange Betting Calculator, and it told us to request odds of 1.41 for the favourite and the exact amount to bet, according to an automatically calculated 4%:96% bias towards the favourite.

Since the time our bet of 4.9 was matched the odds for the non-favourite shortened considerably. As the match started they were 4.2, and the favourite's odds were 1.3, leaving a gap of only 0.11 to our requested odds of 1.41. That's equivalent to about 1 point in tennis. According to the Exchange Betting Calculator, the 'Bet Strength' was 91.07.

Our "balancing" bet on the favourite was matched when the non-favourite moved only a single point ahead in the first game (A-40, a break point against the server). That was enough to move the favourite's odds out to exactly our request of 1.41, thereby triggering a win-win situation. Now we'd win 57.5% of our stake if the favourite won, and 6% of our stake if the non-favourite won. After losing the first two games, the favourite went on to win the match.

In these three examples the favourite stayed ahead after our balancing bet was matched and eventually won. If we had placed our bets on the non-favourites at the "starting prices", our requested odds for the favourites would not have been matched and we would have lost our stake every time. This proves how important Key Factor #1 is to exchange betting strategy and how Exchange Betting Calculator can help you to win money by getting the predicted figures exactly right. As far as we know, there is no other software able to do this.

Although things don't always turn out like these three examples, it's uncanny how often the Exchange Betting Calculator predicts exactly the right numbers to the second decimal point, thus enabling users to achieve the highest returns from optimum odds.

Next is an example of a bet requested by Abacus that was not matched for the non-favourite player, so avoiding the loss of our stake.

Example 4 (avoiding a loss): Tennis match between Frederik Nielsen of Denmark and Thomaz Bellucci of Brazil on 20th October 2009 in Moscow, Russia. Two hours before the scheduled start time of 18.45 the odds for Nielsen were 3.45 and those for Bellucci were 1.39. We entered these figures into the Exchange Betting Calculator, and, with a Bet Strength of only 72.09, it advised to request a bet on Nielsen at odds of 4.1.

The bet on the non-favourite was not matched before the start of the event; so, it was cancelled. The starting odds for the players were 3.4 for Nielsen and 1.4 for Bellucci. If we had placed a bet on Nielsen at the starting odds, our "balancing" bet on Bellucci would have had to be 1.78 to maintain the required level of profit (1.76 if we'd placed the bet at the highest odds of 3.45). This figure was never reached during the entire tennis match, and we would therefore have lost any stake on Nielsen. The highest was 1.73, in the eleventh game of the first set, when Nielsen was ahead 0-15 against the server. The Exchange Betting Calculator thus saved us a loss on this event by advising us not to bet on it at the displayed odds.

It's interesting to note that, had our bet request on Nielsen been matched at 4.1, as advised by the Exchange Betting Calculator, the balancing bet on Bellucci would have been only 1.56. These odds were reached several times during the event, and would have given us yet another win-win situation. The Exchange Betting Calculator got it right yet again, where a human might easily have made a mistake.

We just had to include this next example. Both bets, the one on the non-favourite AND the "balancing" bet on the favourite, were matched BEFORE the event actually started! It happens only rarely, but we think that it occurred on this occasion probably because two unknown players were involved. Could this mean that we should make big bets on such events? This is what happened...

Example 5 (achieving a "win-win" situation before the event even starts): Tennis match between Valery Rudnev of Russia and Oleksandr Dolgopolov of Ukraine on 26th October 2009 in St. Petersburg, Russia. Nine hours before the scheduled start time of 12.15 the odds for Rudnev were 3.3 and those for Dolgopolov were 1.37. We entered these figures into the Exchange Betting Calculator, and, with a Bet Strength of only 65.54, it advised us to request a bet on Rudnev at odds of 4.1.

One hour and a half later 5% of our bet on the non-favourite was matched. After a further 3 hours the remaining 95% of our bet on the non-favourite was matched. (Although we were asleep at the time, this indicates that the odds reached the maximum peak predicted by the Exchange Betting Calculator.) Just before the match started we replaced Rudnev's odds of "3.3" with "4.1" in the Exchange Betting Calculator, and it told us to request odds of 1.56 for the favourite and the exact amount to bet, according to an automatically calculated 39%:61% bias towards the favourite.

Most interesting were the antics of the odds during the 30 minutes before the start of play. They yo-yo'd between 6.4:1.15 and 2.78:1.56! (Do you recognize this last figure? "1.56" is exactly the figure that the Exchange Betting Calculator told us to request for the favourite, thus giving us a win-win situation, with a bet strength of 100, before a ball was even played!) The amount matched for the event soared from £500 to £5,000 in minutes, and went on during play to reach £300,000!

As the first ball was struck, the odds for the players were 3.5 for Rudnev and 1.37 for Dolgopolov, but we didn't care. We'd win 45% of our stake if the favourite won, and 51.5% of our stake if the non-favourite won.

The next example demonstrates the Exchange Betting Calculator's accuracy in telling you exactly how to bet on an event where one player is the hot favourite and the other player is the hopeless underdog, in order to win a large amount of money for only a small stake.

Example 6 (winning a lot of money for a small stake on a hot favourite at short odds): Tennis match between Andy Murray of Great Britain and Rafael Nadal of Spain on 16th April 2011 in Monte Carlo, Monaco. Seven hours before the scheduled start time of 15.00 the odds for Murray were 11 and those for Nadal were 1.09. We entered these figures into the Exchange Betting Calculator, which showed a Bet Strength of 96.41, a very good match chance. We placed a £20 bet on Murray at 11 for winnings of £200 if Murray won. The Exchange Betting Calculator advised a "balancing" bet of £200 on Nadal at odds of 1.13 for winnings of £5.70 if Nadal won and to break even if Murray won.

We switched on the Exchange Betting Calculator' 'Override' function and moved the slider up until the "£5.70" became 50% of our £20 stake ("£9.50" after commission). The Exchange Betting Calculator moved the balancing bet on Nadal only 0.02 to 1.15 (7.6 "lay" on Murray), and we "layed" Murray at 7.6 with a backer's stake of £30, in accordance with the Exchange Betting Calculator's advice, with a Bet Strength of 94.64.

Because the Exchange Betting Calculator's algorithm is set to trigger the balancing bet when the non-favourite is a certain number of points ahead in a tennis game (3, 2 or 1, early, mid-way or late in the event), our balancing bet was matched in the very first game, when Murray won it to 30 against the Nadal serve. The odds hit 1.15 (7.6 lay) precisely as the Exchange Betting Calculator advised.

We won £9.50 (£10 less commission) when Nadal won. That's how to win 50% of your stake on a red-hot favourite at very short odds.

Determining the odds to request for the non-favourite before the event is a complex calculation, involving the current odds offered for both the non-favourite and the favourite, and the probability of the "balancing" bet being matched during the event.

The Exchange Betting Calculator tells you instantly the optimum bet to request for the non-favourite before the event, in order to maximize your chances of it being matched when the odds reach their peak, whether within an hour of the event start or earlier.

If you try to guess the amount to request, it may be matched too early because it is too low, and the odds may continue to move against you.

If you guess too high, the bet will never be matched and you'll lose an opportunity to participate in the event.

Knowing the optimum bet to request gives you the best chance to participate in the event at the best odds.

If your optimum bet is not matched, it means that you'll not participate in an event with a greater than average probability that you would have lost your stake anyway.

The optimum bet is thus a safeguard against making unsound bets.

It's better to make fewer bets more safely than to make more bets more riskily. You can then compensate by increasing your stake more confidently.

In tennis, each point that the non-favourite moves ahead increases the odds against the favourite by about 0.1. A 'bet strength' in the mid-80s will match a 'balancing' bet at 2 points ahead early on, or only 1 point later in a match.

Exchange Betting Calculator

Accurate calculation of optimum odds (different if within 1 hour of event start)


Key Factor #2

Of equal importance to getting the odds right is getting the stake on the favourite right.

You need to make a certain amount of profit for every win on the non-favourite or the favourite, in order to minimize the effect of the inevitable losses. The Exchange Betting Calculator calculates this precisely to two decimal places, with a bias towards either adversary, based on the probability of the requested odds for the favourite being matched and also on historical statistics, to return the maximum amount of profit in the long term.

Key Factor #3

To know the probability of your "balancing" bet being matched.

That is, to be able to assess the degree of possible threat by player A to player B, sufficient to tip the balance of the odds just enough to get your "balancing" bet matched. You do not need to study each player's "form" to guess this "degree of threat"; it can be calculated mathematically from the odds on offer before the event begins. (More about that later.)

Three elements can help you to win at exchange betting: 1. Accurate mathematics; 2. Good timing; 3. Very fast Internet connection speed. The latter two elements help when you engage in 'in-play' betting, that is, betting on each opposing side as the event progresses. (Fortunes change during an event, and the clever, quick punter can take advantage of them, especially if they swing between the opposing sides several times.) Accurate mathematics, though, are ALWAYS helpful, whether betting 'in-play' OR before the event.

In-play betting is fun (especially if you win), and, if you're good at it, you can win more than you lose. You'll never become a millionaire at it, however, because the other punters' stakes are often insufficient to cover large bets. Furthermore, in-play betting is very time-consuming, because you must follow the ups and downs minute by minute. To make a living at it, you'd need to use the Exchange Betting Calculator and give up your day job (unless you work at a computer out of sight of the boss!)

The ideal scenario would be to place winning bets before the event and just leave them there. But what should those bets be? Wouldn't it be a perfect world if you could know BEFORE the event the optimum bets and odds AND the probability of their being matched, so that you could win more than you lose, while you just sit back and enjoy the action, or go to work, or lie on the beach, knowing that the chances are always in your favour? If such a "Set it, bet it, forget it" scenario appeals to you, you should read on...


'Back' or 'Lay'?

You make a 'Back' bet on an event that you think WILL happen; You make a 'Lay' bet on an event that you think WILL NOT happen.

Here's the formula that relates 'Back' bets and 'Lay' bets: 'Back' A = 'Lay' B x ('Back' A - 1)

The same formula can also be stated thus: 'Lay' A = 'Back' B / ('Back' B - 1)

This formula shows that you do not need to use 'Lay' betting at all, if you find it hard to understand or fear making a mistake. You simply make a "balancing" 'Back' bet on the opposing side, instead of 'laying' the side you've 'backed'. The outcome is identical.


"What's the difference between exchange betting and traditional betting?"

There are two major differences: 1. The odds. 2. In-play betting.

1. With traditional betting, you're betting against a clever bookmaker who fixes the odds according to a strict mathematical formula calculated to make him a profit, depending only on the amount of money bet on each opponent. By contrast, the owners of the exchange betting web site charge a fixed rate of commission on everyone's net winnings, regardless of the odds. The odds are simply those offered by other bettors who are "laying", as distinct from those who are "backing", a player or a side. In fact the difference between the odds of the opponents can vary wildly. It is this very difference that, if you know how to work with it, can make you a winner instead of a loser.

With exchange betting you're betting against other bettors just like you. Well, that's not quite true... The vast majority of them will not have the advantage of the Exchange Betting Calculator software; so, unlike you, most of them will be betting by a human-devised "system", "gut feeling", "by the seat of their pants" or even in a panic during the event. This is all the "edge" you need to make a consistent profit!

Exchange betting odds often bear little relationship to bookmakers' odds, because they are calculated differently. Whereas you know for sure that the bookie has an "edge" against you, this is far from being so with exchange betting. If you do certain calculations on the odds offered on all events, you'll discover that some bets are much more likely to win than others. More importantly, you'll know which bets should be avoided, as they have little chance of winning. Just a few consecutive losses can wipe out numerous small wins.

2. With traditional betting, no more bets are accepted after the event starts. You win or you lose on the result, and the odds are ALWAYS against you. (There is a comparison chart near the end of this page.)

Thanks to brilliant computer software, 'in-play' betting is possible on exchange betting web sites. Although the odds are still against you before the event -- obviously, otherwise nobody would 'lay', and there'd be no betting at all! -- they are adjusted constantly during the event, according to the changing fortunes of the opposing sides.

This means that, if you bet a certain amount on the non-favourite before the event, and, during the event, the non-favourite gains even a slight advantage, the odds on the non-favourite will shorten and the odds on the favourite will lengthen. If and when the "swing" reaches a certain point, and you bet a certain amount on the favourite, you will make a profit regardless of the outcome of the event! This "swing" needs to occur only once and at any time during the event for your bet to be matched. Thereafter the actual result doesn't matter; you win either way.

If you think about this logically, you'll realize you're not trying to pick a winner; What you're actually betting on, when you place your bet on the non-favourite, is whether such a "swing" will occur. To be able to win over a period of time, it's therefore ESSENTIAL to know not only the amount of money and the odds at which to bet on each side, but ALSO the probability of that swing occurring.

This is a complex calculation, and, after some research, we at Abacus Data Systems could not find any software tool that did it.
So, in keeping with our policy of filling gaps in the market, we created one. We called it the 'Exchange Betting Calculator'.


"How does the Exchange Betting Calculator work?"

There are two ways to use the Exchange Betting Calculator: 1. Pre-event; 2. "In-play" (during the event). The procedure is different for each. You can do either or both on the same event or on different events.

There's another important difference also:

  • Used for pre-event betting, the Exchange Betting Calculator advises you on which bets to place, which to avoid and the odds to request for both adversaries. It therefore provides you with a betting strategy that has already been tested to win steadily over time.
  • Used for in-play betting, the Exchange Betting Calculator does not suggest a betting strategy, but enables you to plan your own in-play betting strategy for any number of "moves" in advance. (Exchange betting web sites do not provide such a facility.) Your chances of winning are, therefore, still dependent on luck and your own judgment.

1. Pre-event

You enter the odds offered for both opposing sides before an event and the amount you want to bet on the non-favourite. These change during the last hour just before the event.

Exchange Betting Calculator tells you:

A. Optimum odds to request on the non-favourite to maximize the chance of your balancing bet being matched.

B. The amount you need to bet on the favourite and the odds to request, in order to make a profit, regardless of whether the favourite or the non-favourite wins. You can see how much you'll win on each, if your "balancing" bet is matched, and can adjust your bet on the favourite, to win more or less than on the non-favourite, according to the probability of the favourite winning.

Equally importantly, it tells you the probability of your "balancing" bet being matched by means of a "bet strength" indicator. This can vary vastly from less than 20 to more than 80! Unless you know this information, you could be requesting odds that have very little chance of being matched, and you'll lose money. This is a unique and powerful feature of the Exchange Betting Calculator.

Tips for users: Based on past results, if the odds you get for the non-favourite show a "bet strength" in the 80s, you'll achieve a win-win situation about 80% of the time.

The most profitable sport for pre-event betting is tennis, and for in-play betting (see next item) the most profitable are tennis, American football, snooker, darts.

Exchange Betting Calculator

Example of a bet to place!

(Shows the differences when '1 hour' and favourite bias 'Override' are selected.
Compare this image with the previous one showing the same odds offered for A & B.)

Why does the Exchange Betting Calculator win more from tennis betting than from
other sports? See further down this page for the answer.

2. "In-play"

Although you can win more money by this method, it requires you to monitor the event. Full step-by-step instructions are are included in the Exchange Betting Calculator software 'Tips' section. Briefly, it involves preparing several bets in advance with multiple calculator forms, so that you don't lose precious time figuring out what you need to do when the time comes to do it.

The example below shows three bets at odds of 6.60, 8.00 and 10.00 for the non-favourite. The corresponding "balancing" bets on the favourite are requested as each one is matched during the event. The stake on the favourite breaks even if the non-favourite wins, and the requested odds for the favourite return about half the original stake on the non-favourite.

By this means the requested odds are easy to match, and you build up the winnings on each adversary gradually, using the winnings on the one to bet on the other. If you wish, you can place a final bet to produce an equal gain, regardless of the result.

This may sound somewhat complex, but you'll soon get used to it, once you've done it a few times. We've done it several times during testing, and are well ahead, moneywise.

Look at the example below. By the end of the second set, we had produced a win-win situation with a gain of 250% of the original stake of £2 (our only risk). Imagine that scaled up 10 times! Are you brave enough?

Exchange Betting Calculator in play

Below is another example, using a slightly different betting strategy. This shows how we doubled our initial stake during a volleyball match. Volleyball lends itself well to in-play betting, because the action is fast and the scores tend to swing from one team to the other very frequently. Each time they swing the other way, you can make a profit.

Full step-by-step instructions are are included in software 'Tips' section of the Exchange Betting Calculator software program.

In-play betting example


"How does the Exchange Betting Calculator enable me to win over time?"

The Exchange Betting Calculator software algorithms are a trade secret, of course; otherwise other mathematicians and software engineers could copy them. But, even if they were to produce a rival to the Exchange Betting Calculator, would they want to sell it as cheaply as £127? We think not. After all, what value would you put on a exchange betting calculator tool that gives you a consistent advantage over non-users, to make money from betting? £500.00? £1,000.00?

Suffice it to reveal that several discrete calculations are built into the Exchange Betting Calculator, all of them complementing each other to form a complex algorithm. Among the factors involved are: the current odds offered for the non-favourite and the favourite, the probability of a balancing bet being matched, the odds above which and below which it becomes more profitable to favour the favourite or the non-favourite, based on historical analysis, and the degree of the "favouring", the historical proportion of favourite wins to non-favourite wins within the range of odds recommended, and the amount of the balancing stake to reflect that proportion.

Because the odds offered for the non-favourite and the favourite are determined by a large number of other bettors, not by a bookie, they can be considered as being representative of the betting community's average opinion of the relative strength and weakness of each adversary. These odds are therefore the best indicators on which to base a mathematical algorithm.

After months of trial and error testing and fine-tuning, this is what it means in practical terms of tennis betting:
The Exchange Betting Calculator's computations are honed precisely to get your balancing bet matched when the non-favourite's score is from 0 points to 3 points ahead of the favourite's score, depending on the stage reached in the match. This margin decreases, the longer the match lasts. Examples: The balancing bet should be matched when the non-favourite draws level at one set all or moves 1 point ahead in the first game of the third set (against the serve; 2-3 points ahead with the serve). The balancing bet should be matched when the non-favourite moves 3 points ahead in the early stages, even during the first game (2 or even 1 point ahead, if it's a break point).

Together with the tactical guidance, also based on historical analysis, all the factors combine together behind the scenes to give you an optimum betting strategy that gives you a definite "edge" against exchange betting competitors, enabling you to win regularly.

This is the principle of "AMG" -- the "Aggregation of Marginal Gains". (See later on this page for details about the "AMG" principle.)


"Why does the Exchange Betting Calculator win more from tennis betting than from other sports?"

There's a very good reason for this unusual fact. It's because of the unique nature of the scoring system in tennis.

In other sports, when one side scores more points than the other, the other side must make up every point of its deficit before it can even get the opportunity to move ahead. In tennis it is not so. One player or doubles team can lose the first set very heavily, yet win the second set very closely. This wipes the slate clean and the two sides are suddenly even again. (A player can win a three-set tennis match even when scoring an enormous 42 points fewer than the loser! There's no other game in which such an anomaly can occur.)

The algorithms of the Exchange Betting Calculator software harness this anomaly, and provide the precise figures for the odds to request for both the non-favourite and the favourite, and the stake for the "balancing" bet, based on statistical analysis of actual match results within the range of odds in which the favourite wins about 60% of the time and the non-favourite wins about 40% of the time. This information gives the software user a definite advantage over non-users. After months of testing it has been found that the Exchange Betting Calculator returns a net profit (after commission) of approximately 10% of the amount staked on tennis matches prior to the start of the events (considerably better than the bank deposit account interest rate). (See the chart for the latest profit figure.)

The Exchange Betting Calculator also performs well with snooker for a similar reason, though not as well as with tennis. The offered odds swing back and forth frequently, and often quite far, as one or other player makes a largish break, even before the frame is won. If your objective is only to make money, however, rather than enjoy the excitement, it is better to stick to tennis only.

Although the information provided by the Exchange Betting Calculator can also be applied to other suitable sports and games, such as American football and darts (very long matches only, otherwise the odds swings are too large and too rare), testing shows that pre-event bets tend to break even. So, there's little point in betting at all.

The foregoing applies to pre-event betting only. With in-play betting, the Exchange Betting Calculator is useful for tennis, snooker, American football, darts, volleyball, basketball, etc., fairly equally.


Test results of the Exchange Betting Calculator during the 2009 Wimbledon tennis tournament...

We at Abacus Data Systems discovered the existence of exchange betting at the very beginning of this tournament, when a friend introduced us to a very popular exchange betting web site: Betfair.com. As is typical of software engineers, we immediately wondered whether there was a possibility of gaining an advantage through the power of mathematics.

We created a matched betting spreadsheet and tried a "greedy" algorithm during the first round of matches, and lost quite a lot of money. The algorithm we used during the second round of matches was less ambitious, and we lost about one-third of the amount that we lost during the first round. The algorithm we used from the third round to the quarter-finals was conservative, and we won the same amount of money that we'd lost with the second algorithm for the same number of bets.

As we continued to test and win with the third algorithm, we tweaked it here and there to improve it, so that it returned enough profit to be considered worth the effort of placing the bets, while still keeping the risk factor low.

Here are the actual results of the Exchange Betting Calculator from the third round of matches to the end of the tournament:
Click the results table to expand it to full size.

Exchange Betting Calculator results

During testing we always bet the minimum stake of £2. The number of bets was 33. The total staked was £66.
The net profit, after commission, was £12.34. The return on investment was 18.70%. (Compare that to a bank deposit account rate!)

Based on this experience, an investment of £1,000 over time would bring a profit of £187.00. And winnings are not subject to tax!

Algorithm 3A was tested for 50 bets and returned an average 16.22% net profit (after exchange betting web site's commission).

Algorithm 3B was then tested for 20 bets and returned an average 17.87% net profit (after exchange betting web site's commission).

Further testing showed that Algorithm 3B was subject to fluctuations which made us feel a little uneasy. Being conservative, we prefer a more steady, if smaller, gain. We therefore developed Algorithm 4A and tested it against a tweaked version 4B. The results appear below. 4B showed an improvement. We continued to test it against another tweaked version 4C to try to improve performance further.

Test Results for the first 300 Bets
Exchange betting Calculator Profit Chart

(At the beginning of a test, the first few results always show large fluctuations. As the amount of data increases, the variation reduces and a pattern begins to emerge. The more data there are, the straighter (and more accurate) becomes the trend line.)

Bets 1 to 80 reflect Algorithm 4A, which used an aggressive betting strategy (the 10%/5% method demonstrated in the videos). The return on investment after 80 bets was 10.51%. Bets 81 to 100 reflect Algorithm 4B, which used a conservative betting strategy together with an 11% extra bias against the net winnings on the non-favourite when calculating the stake on the favourite. The return on investment for these 20 bets alone was actually higher than the 12.26% indicated in the chart, because the data for these 20 bets are included in the cumulative total for the entire 100 bets. Bets 101 to 150 reflect Algorithm 4C, which is very similar to 4B, in that it uses the figures and strategy advised in the 'Pre-event bet request for non-favourite' section of the software interface, but this time without the bias used in 4B. After 150 bets the cumulative cash profit stood at 9.69% (almost its lowest ever). Bets 151 to 200 used the same algorithm 4C, but the balancing bet was a lay bet on the non-favourite instead of a back bet on the favourite. After 200 bets the cumulative cash profit stood at 12.26%. After 250 bets the cumulative cash profit stood at 9.73%, having peaked at 13.06%. (4C is the version used in the latest software download.)

Now that 250 bets have been placed, we feel that we have tweaked the algorithm to its limit for a maximum profit from tennis betting, and feel confident that future results should remain fairly steady, although we shall continue to test and publish our results ad infinitum. We are happy with a seemingly reliable minimum 9% return. It's better than any bank interest rate on a deposit account, and betting this way brings an element of excitement into our otherwise dull lives whenever we check our results. (Although, as scientists, we do not gamble as a matter of principle, we do wager considerably more money in parallel with our minimum-stake test bets since the success of our first 250 bets. This increases our return by more than 30%! See the chart above (from bet #260) and the highlighted paragraph in the "Do I need to be knowledgeable about the event I'm betting on?" section below. Because the law still views it as gambling, we do not pay any tax on our winnings!) The main advantage for us, though, is the fact that the pre-event betting advice given by the Exchange Betting Calculator allows us to enjoy these benefits without spending the vast amounts of time staring at a computer screen that in-play betting demands.

Our cumulative profit (commission paid) after 300 bets stands at 10.63%. Because this is cumulative over 300 bets, it means that our last 43 bets (since bet #258, when we used our judgment of players' "form" in addition to the mathematical advice of the Exchange Betting Calculator, and varied our bets: £2, £7 or £12,) returned actually more than 10.63% (See next section).

Click the chart above to display it at full size.

View a table of all these test matched betting results in the chart

(From result 89 onwards, for a while, there are some American football, darts and snooker matches among the tennis matches.)

Latest Test Results (Combining Mathematics with Human Judgment of Players' "Form")

Our first 257 bets, using only the mathematical advice provided by the Exchange Betting Calculator and a fixed stake, returned just under 10% profit (commission paid). Since we started to use our judgment (based on the experience gained from tennis betting) in addition to this mathematical advice, and to vary the stake accordingly, the results have been radically different. These results are therefore presented in a separate chart below, and the chart containing the first 300 bets (above) is discontinued.

Exchange betting Calculator Profit Chart

Our cumulative profit (commission paid) for the last 96 bets stands at 16.09%. We won £78.36, commission paid, from £487 of bets. (Using our judgment of players' "form" in addition to the mathematical advice of the Exchange Betting Calculator, and varying our bets:
£2, £7 or £12 -- £2 if we think that the chances of the balancing bet being matched are weak, £7 if we think that they are mediocre, £12 if we think that they are strong. At Abacus, we bet only for test purposes, of course. To make a lot of money, your stakes must be higher.)

To Summarize...

Our test results show that, if you use the Abacus Exchange Betting Calculator in the same way as we do, you can:

  • Make about 10% profit regularly if you use the calculator with a fixed stake;
  • Make about 16% profit regularly if you use the calculator with a variable stake according to the players' "form".

A new video is coming soon that will demonstrate exactly how we use use the Exchange Betting Calculator to make these profits regularly at the Betfair betting exchange. You'll just need to copy exactly what we do to make similar profits.

 

How well did the Exchange Betting Calculator do at the 2012 Australian Open Tennis Championship?

Question: Why doesn't Abacus Data Systems use the Exchange Betting Calculator to make lots of money from matched betting at Betfair?

Answer: We make only small test bets because our business is making money from software, not from gambling. The Exchange Betting Calculator is, in fact, an unusual product. Abacus makes business software, such as AutoEmailer, Web Sites Creator, AdWords Campaign Manager, SEO Editor, Keyword Assistant, Landing Page Creator, Link-Cloak, Media Viewer...

Total stake = £19. Total winnings after commission = £5.08. Net return = 26.75%.

We missed the first two days of the competition, when the largest number of matches were played, because of staff holidays.

(During the Australian Open Tennis Championship, we bet with a minimum stake of £2 on matches using the mathematics only, and either £7 or £12 on matches using the mathematics and our judgment of the form of the players.)

View a table of all Abacus test matched betting results

How well did the Exchange Betting Calculator do at the 2011 US Open?

Total stake = £27. Total winnings after commission = £10.43. Net return = 38.63%.

(During the US Open Tennis Championship, we bet with a minimum stake of £2 on matches using the mathematics only, and either £7 or £12 on matches using the mathematics and our judgment of the form of the players.)

How well did the Exchange Betting Calculator do at the 2011 Wimbledon Open?

Total stake = £24. Total winnings after commission = £5.02. Net return = 20.92%.

We did not bet during the last 6 days of Wimbledon, because the person who tests the Abacus software went on holiday on the second Monday of the championship, hence the total staked was lower than usual.

(During the Wimbledon Open Tennis Championship, we bet with a minimum stake of £2 on matches using the mathematics only, and either £7 or £12 on matches using the mathematics and our judgment of the form of the players.)

How well did the Exchange Betting Calculator do at the 2011 French Open?

Total stake = £42. Total winnings after commission = £6.42. Net return = 15.29%.

(During the French Open Tennis Championship, we bet with a minimum stake of £2 on matches using the mathematics only, and either £7 or £12 on matches using the mathematics and our judgment of the form of the players.)

How well did the Exchange Betting Calculator do at the 2011 Australian Open?

Total stake = £14. Total winnings after commission = £7.07. Net return = 50.50%.

The high return is not typical because we bet on only two events and won them both. The time difference in the UK made it difficult for us to monitor many of the events. Unlike last year, when we bet on 23 events during early product results testing, we felt that, by now, the Matched Betting Calculator has proved itself.

(During the Australian Open Tennis Championship, we bet with a minimum stake of £2 on matches using the mathematics only, and either £7 or £12 on matches using the mathematics and our judgment of the form of the players.)

How well did the Exchange Betting Calculator do at the 2010 US Open?

Total stake = £61. Total winnings after commission = £7.92. Net return = 12.99%. (During the US Open Tennis Championship, we bet with a minimum stake of £2 on matches using the mathematics only, and either £7 or £12 on matches using the mathematics and our judgment of the form of the players.)

How well did the Exchange Betting Calculator do at the 2010 Wimbledon Open?

Total stake = £81. Total winnings after commission = £18.50. Net return = 22.85%. (During the Wimbledon Open Tennis Championship, we bet with a minimum stake of £2 on matches using the mathematics only, and either £7 or £12 on matches using the mathematics and our judgment of the form of the players.)

How well did the Exchange Betting Calculator do at the 2010 French Open?

Total stake = £35. Total winnings after commission = £6.80. Net return = 19.43%. (During the French Open Tennis Championship, we bet with a minimum stake of £2 on matches using the mathematics only, and either £7 or £12 on matches using the mathematics and our judgment of the form of the players.)

How well did the Exchange Betting Calculator do at the 2010 Australian Open?

Total stake = £46. Total winnings after commission = £9.71. Net return = 21.11%. (During the Australian Open Tennis Championship, we bet only with a fixed stake of £2, regardless of players' form.)


As anyone knows, profit is directly proportional to risk. We feel that the latest algorithm produces the optimum outcome, to provide a virtually risk-free* steady income.

Choose your own strategy:
'10%/5%' method = less money + more excitement; 'Pre-event bet request for non-favourite' method = more money + less excitement.

* We say "virtually risk-free" because even gambling casinos do not operate at zero risk. They make huge profits, however, from the mathematical "edge" they have against bettors through the enormous amount of money that is wagered. The casinos' "edge" averages only about 2.5%.


"Where and how do I place my bets?"

Because you're likely to win with the Exchange Betting Calculator, if you register with Betfair.com, for example, where our tests were carried out, you'd probably need to create an account with only about £100 to get started. Of course, if you want your basic stake to be £100 instead of £2, you'd need to deposit considerably more in your account. Then your return (and the adrenaline rush) would be 50 times greater.

On 08 July 2009 our web site was checked and approved by Betfair, who are offering to credit new accounts with free stake money, so that you can try out what you've read about here. So, go ahead and join Betfair now.

As a matter of interest, on 9th September 2009 we took a look at a "traditional" bookmaker betting web site, eurosportbet.co.uk, to compare their odds to those at Betfair. We assumed that they would be similar, but we were very wrong! This is what we found:

(The 'Bet Strength' column was calculated by the Exchange Betting Calculator software. The better bet is blue; the worse is red.)

US Open Tennis Championship Quarter-Finals 2009

Web Site Non-Favourite Odds (fractional) Odds (decimal) Favourite Odds (fractional) Odds (decimal) Bet Strength
Eurosport Verdasco 15/8 2.88 Djokovic 4/11 1.36 46.52
Betfair Verdasco 21/8 3.65 Djokovic 4/11 1.37 76.25
Eurosport Soderling 7/1 8 Federer 1/20 1.05 91.19
Betfair Soderling 11/1 12 Federer 8/100 1.08 96.40
Eurosport Cilic 14/5 3.8 Del Potro 2/9 1.22 66.72
Betfair Cilic 7/2 4.5 Del Potro 5/18 1.27 83.84
Eurosport Gonzalez 11/5 3.2 Nadal 3/10 1.3 56.35
Betfair Gonzalez 13/5 3.6 Nadal 19/50 1.38 75.6
Eurosport Oudin 15/8 2.88 Wozniacki 4/11 1.36 46.52
Betfair Oudin 17/8 3.15 Wozniacki 5/11 1.45 66.38
Eurosport Clijsters 2/1 3 Williams 1/3 1.33 50.01
Betfair Clijsters 5/2 3.45 Williams 7/18 1.39 72.09

In every case the Betfair web site offered much better odds for the punter.

On 11th September we decided to check other "traditional" betting web sites. We found two others at the top of the search results. Although we found it hard to believe, the odds offered at Bwin.com were even worse than those at eurosportbet.co.uk. The odds at BlueSq.com were only slightly better than eurosportbet's. At the times we checked, the odds at these three "traditional" betting web sites were so poor that we doubt that we'd have come out ahead, even with the help of the Exchange Betting Calculator software.

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RACING - LIVE RESULTS


"Do I need to be knowledgeable about the event I'm betting on?"

Not usually, but it can help. Just plug the numbers into the Exchange Betting Calculator, and it'll spit out the information you need.

An occasion on which special knowledge might help, though, is when you know that the non-favourite has a better chance of winning than the displayed odds suggest. Then you may wish to place a bet even if the Exchange Betting Calculator tells you that the probability of it being matched is inadvisable.

Conversely, if you think that the non-favourite has no hope of threatening the favourite at any time during the event, you don't need to place the bet just because the Exchange Betting Calculator tells you that the probability of it being matched is high. Remember that the calculator tool is based on mathematics, not on form. Although "form" does figure in the odds set by a knowledgable betting community, sometimes they get it wrong and the odds offered are not truly representative of each side's strength and weakness. For example, it is probably unwise to participate in an event where one opponent is highly ranked in the sport and the other is unknown, yet the odds offered on each are within the limits advised by the calculator. This means that the odds being offered are probably unrealistic and you should not bet. See Figures 1 & 2 further down the page. (Some events, such as tennis and snooker, have a 'Form Stats' hyperlink on the Betfair web site, which you can click to see a player's performance statistics.)

The Exchange Betting Calculator goes a very long way indeed to helping you make the right decisions. By all means place a bet whenever the mathematics say so, but, if you think that the "form" does not justify it, place a small bet. Whenever you feel that the "form" does justify it, place a large bet. If you develop a "sliding scale" of stake sizes according to a combination of 'bet strength' displayed by the software and the "form", you should be able to optimize your betting strategy and maximize your winnings.

These are decisions for you to make. During our first 250 tests we placed bets according to the suggestions of the Exchange Betting Calculator, regardless of our own judgment, using a fixed stake (the minimum); otherwise they would not be true tests. From bet 258 onwards, however, we used our knowledge of the players' "form", acquired during the first 250 bets, to judge whether the "balancing" bet had a strong or weak chance of being matched. If we thought that the chance was weak, we bet the minimum £2; If we thought that the chance was strong, we bet six times the minimum stake: £12. The increase in our cash returns was phenomenal, as you can see in the chart and the table. We didn't bother with a sliding scale between weak and strong, but, if you want to make the most money with the Exchange Betting Calculator, you should do so.


"What must I do to win with the Exchange Betting Calculator?"

Very easily answered. Just stick to the plan, and don't panic!

- Follow the sequence of actions and the advice given by the Exchange Betting Calculator exactly. Don't try to out-guess the system. It's been carefully designed to give you the edge over non-users. (But see the previous section.)

- Don't bet for the sake of betting. If an event is not recommended by the Exchange Betting Calculator, don't bet on it. (But see the previous section.)

- Don't be greedy! You shouldn't ever expect big wins. The Exchange Betting Calculator doesn't work like that. Big wins happen only through good luck. The Exchange Betting Calculator does not depend on luck at all, only on the inexorable reliability of mathematics.

- If you use the 'pre-event' method, do not bet on an event that has already started, even if only a few minutes have been played. The Exchange Betting Calculator provides you with advice based on pre-event odds. The odds can swing dramatically within seconds during in-play betting, and will probably be different from those before the start.

- If you use the 'in-play' method, watch the event for a while, to ensure that it's not going to be a rout by the favourite. If it looks that way, don't bet on it. Otherwise, prepare likely bets in advance with multiple Exchange Betting Calculator forms, and have them ready. You may need to place a bet very quickly when the time comes!

- Resist the urge to place an additional "balancing" bet on an event, no matter how tempted you are!

- Keep your nerve. Once the Exchange Betting Calculator has calculated your "balancing" bet and you've requested it, don't modify it downwards, just to get it matched, no matter how close the ever-changing odds come and then move away again. Remember, the Exchange Betting Calculator is programmed to help you win if you follow its advice precisely.

Here are some real examples of requested "balancing" bets that seemed would not be matched, but were recommended by the Exchange Betting Calculator:

-- 29 June 2009 - Wimbledon 4th Round - V. Williams v. Ivanovic: The "balancing" bet was matched simply because Ivanovic had two break points in the very first game. Williams saved them both and then went ahead and stayed in front.

-- 29 June 2009 - Wimbledon 4th Round - Hewitt v. Stepanek: The "balancing" bet was matched simply because Stepanek had two break points in the very first game.

-- 01 July 2009 - Wimbledon Quarter-Final - Hewitt v. Roddick: The "balancing" bet was not matched until 30-00 in the first game of the fifth set, when Hewitt moved ahead for the first time in the match, after more than 3 hours of play. Then he lost. (But we won!)

-- 05 July 2009 - Wimbledon Final - Paes/Black v. Knowles/Groenefeld: Knowles/Groenefeld started as non-favourites, and were always behind from the outset. At 2-5 down in the first set, and with two set points against them, they staged a recovery. They pulled back to 6-5, and the "balancing" bet was eventually matched at 30-00 in the twelfth game. They then went on to win; and so did we, of course.

So, don't despair if it seems like your "balancing" bet will not be matched during an event. Fortunes do change, and the odds can and do come back to your favour. Remember, it needs only a small, temporary swing towards the non-favourite side for your bet to be matched, and then you'll win, regardless of the result of the event.

Yes, some of your bets will not be matched, and you'll lose the money you bet on the non-favourite. You must accept that you will not win on every event. You must understand also that you do not NEED to win on every event. Gambling casinos make lots of money, simply because they have an average "edge" of about 2.5% against the bettor. Used wisely, the Exchange Betting Calculator gives you a far greater "edge" than that against your betting competitors!


"Can I use the Exchange Betting Calculator on any kind of event?"

The Exchange Betting Calculator deals with events with only two possible outcomes, win or lose, for each of two adversaries. It does not cater for multiple outcomes, e.g., a draw or tie, or for multiple adversaries. The reason for this is that the easiest way to make money with the help of mathematics is for there to be only two opposing sides, one of which must win and the other must lose. Abacus presumes that the reason why anyone would want to use the Exchange Betting Calculator is to make money, rather than for fun.

Although it can used to some effect for any such sport or game, the Abacus Exchange Betting Calculator's algorithms have been honed to perfection for betting on tennis events, because of the unique nature of the tennis scoring system. (See the section "Why does the Exchange Betting Calculator win more from tennis betting than from other sports?" for details.) Moreover, there is a slightly better chance of winning on women's tennis matches than on men's tennis matches. The reason for this is that the serve plays a more dominant role in men's tennis than in women's tennis, because it is more powerful. Consequently, service breaks are more common in women's tennis than in men's tennis. This causes more frequent fluctuations in the odds being offered, and it is, of course, the carefully calculated fluctuations that give Exchange Betting Calculator users the edge over non-users.

Although there are occasional anomalies, the algorithms are configured to trigger a win-win result when:

  • either the non-favourite moves 3 points ahead against the favourite's serve, or 2 points if it is a break point, in early games,
  • or the non-favourite moves 2 points ahead against the favourite's serve, or 1 point if it is a break point, later in the first set,
  • or the non-favourite moves 1 point ahead against the favourite's serve, after losing the first set and winning the second set.
    (This is conservative. Usually, the "balancing" bet is triggered at the instant when the non-favourite wins the second set.)

The most extreme circumstances occurred in a match during our algorithm tests in 2010, when the non-favourite got off to an explosive start, gaining a break point 0-40 against the favourite's serve in the very first game. This triggered our balancing bet, giving us the win-win situation. The non-favourite eventually lost that first game, and then went on to lose the match 6-1, 6-0! Nevertheless, we won!

If the non-favourite never moves ahead against the serve, of course, the bet will almost always lose.


A exchange betting tip: An advantage of being early.

Place a request for a bet on the non-favourite early. The Exchange Betting Calculator tells you exactly the odds to request. If your request is at the front of the queue, your bet will be matched before anyone else's who requested the same odds. The advantage to you is that, if and when other punters lay enough money to cover only partially the requested bets at those odds, yours will be matched, while the bets of others will have to wait or not be matched at all.

Furthermore, the earlier you request a bet on the non-favourite, the more likely it is that the odds will even have shortened again after your bet was matched. That brings your requested "balancing" bet closer to being matched, and you nearer to a win-win situation! There must be good liquidity in the market for this to happen, otherwise you may find that the odds continue to rise, after your requested odds for the non-favourite have been matched, (thereby moving against you). By "liquidity" we mean here:

  • The amount of money already matched should be high enough to show that punters are interested in the event. There's no "rule" for what this amount should be; more important are the two criteria which follow. Even 100 times your stake is enough if the next three criteria are strongly satisfied.
  • The gaps between the currently offered "back" odds and the currently requested "lay" odds for the non-favourite should be small. The greater the gap is, the greater is the risk that the odds will continue to rise. For example, if the current back offer for the non-favourite is 3.6 and the current lay request is 4.1 and the next lay request is 4.5, it'd be advisable to wait a while and check the situation later. An actual example is shown in Figure 1 below. If the current lay request is only 3.9 and the next lay request is 4, however, this would indicate that the market has already settled close to the likely "starting prices". If the Exchange Betting Calculator advises to request a "back" bet on the non-favourite of about 4.3 in such a situation, it'd be a wise move.
  • Not only should these gaps be small, but the largest amounts of "lay" money waiting for the non-favourite (or "back" money waiting for the favourite, if you prefer to back the favourite as your balancing bet) must be close to the currently offered odds. For instance, let's say that the current "back" odds offered for the non-favourite are 3.9 and the current "lay" odds are 3.95, and the "lay" odds "waiting in the wings" are 4 and 4.1. These would be very good odds to enter into the Exchange Betting Calculator if the money available were, say, £2000 at 3.95, £500 at 4, and £50 at 4.1. This indicates that the consensus of opinion among punters is that the current odds are about right. If, however, the "lay" money available were £50 at 3.95, £500 at 4, and £2000 at 4.1, it indicates that the final "starting price" of the non-favourite is likely to be higher than the current odds, and would be a higher-risk bet. In this situation, just make a note of the event, and check it later. If the odds become favourable later, then enter them into the Exchange Betting Calculator to get its advice on how to bet. Examples are shown in Figures 2, 3 and 4 below.
    Remember: The easiest way to make money is to get your bet on the non-favourite matched when it hits its "high" and then falls back. That's exactly how the Abacus Exchange Betting Calculator operates.
  • Furthermore, the amount of "lay" money waiting for the non-favourite (or "back" money waiting for the favourite, if you prefer to back the favourite as your balancing bet) must be sufficiently large to make it likely that your balancing bet will be matched. There is no point in requesting a bet on the non-favourite, recommended by the Exchange Betting Calculator, if there's insufficient money to pay you if and when your requested odds for the balancing bet are reached.

    A bad bet!
    Figure 1 A higher-risk bet! Not only is Santonja unknown, but the
    money available is low and the gap between 4.3 and 4.5 is large.
    A bad bet!
    Figure 2 A higher-risk bet! Not only is Rufin unknown, but the
    money available on the "lay" side at 5 is 30 times that at 4.8.
       
    A bad bet!
    Figure 3 A higher-risk bet! Although the money available on the "lay" side is distributed favourably, the gaps are large.
    A good bet!
    Figure 4 A lower-risk bet! This is the previous event a few hours later. Now is the time to seek the advice of the Abacus Calculator.

More often than not, your requested bet on the non-favourite will be matched at the first attempt. If the start of the event is near and it still hasn't been matched, use the Exchange Betting Calculator again to tell you what your requested odds should be, according to the currently offered odds, and adjust your bet request. You can do this any number of times until you either get the best odds possible or your requested bet is not matched at all (in which case forget it and move on). (Don't forget to use the '1 hour' switch.) During our tests, though, it was found that the more often and/or closer to the event's start time the requested bet on the non-favourite is reduced, the greater is the risk that the balancing bet on the favourite will not be matched. In short, it is best to place the bet request for the non-favourite once and not change it. You'll participate in fewer events but you'll make more money this way.


A exchange betting tip: First come - first served!

During in-play betting, if your bet is at the front of the queue, it can be matched even if the displayed odds are less than your requested odds. This can happen when the amount of money available roughly equates to the amount of your bet as well as the odds matching. As soon as your bet is matched, the odds shorten again, because the money available at your requested odds has been allocated to your bet. The whole transaction takes only a fraction of a second, and there's too little time for the matched odds to be actually displayed. (While testing, we saw a bet at requested odds of 2.0 matched without the display changing from 1.5!)

So, there are certain advantages to be gained by putting your bet on early, be it prior to the event or in-play.


Other exchange betting tips

Do you remember the Great Britain cycling team winning many gold medals at the 2008 Olympic Games? They all but demolished the opposition. Do you know how they did it?... By "AMG" -- the "Aggregation of Marginal Gains". Flat handlebars instead of round ones; special covers over the shoes and pedals, to smooth out the non-aerodynamic parts, like the laces and stitched ridges; tight-weave ultra-slippery body suit material, etc. All such small gains mount up to an advantage of sufficient magnitude to make a difference between winning and losing.

The same principle of the Aggregation of Marginal Gains applies to any win-lose situation. It's always been hard to win when betting in any environment, because the odds are always against the punter. They have to be against you, otherwise the bookmakers, casinos, etc., would not remain in business. With the advent of exchange betting, however, it is possible to win regularly, but you still need every possible tiny advantage to do so. All these advantages are packaged neatly in the Exchange Betting Calculator.

While we've been testing the Exchange Betting Calculator, our analytical curiosity has uncovered several other "tips and tricks", which we share with you, to maximize your winnings. We also give you step-by-step tactics, based on the analysis of our test results, for betting with various levels of aggressiveness, whether you're in it only for the money or you want some excitement to go with it. These tips and tricks appear in a special "Tips" section of the software.

Good luck? Nice to have, but not necessary with the "appliance of science" with the Exchange Betting Calculator! Knowledge is power!

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